John Hasselbauer is optimistic about Tommy Fleetwood finally breaking through for his first PGA Tour victory at the prestigious Players Championship, highlighting Fleetwood's elite recent form and skillset that fits ideally at TPC Sawgrass. Fleetwood ranks No. 4 in total strokes gained at Sawgrass over his career, with two top-10 finishes and just one missed cut across seven prior appearances. He's been remarkably consistent, gaining strokes both off the tee and on approach for 12 straight events across PGA and DP World Tours. The highly positional Sawgrass setup favors reliable ball-strikers with strong scrambling abilities in difficult conditions, elements distinctly within Fleetwood's strengths. Hasselbauer also emphasizes Fleetwood's strong track record under pressure, including seven major top-5 finishes, bolstering his confidence that Fleetwood could finally seal the victory this week.

Brandon Gdula is passing on Tommy Fleetwood at 25-1, explaining that Fleetwood’s recent strokes-gained ceiling isn’t matching the other elite players at the top of the board. Gdula believes the mark is too short considering Fleetwood’s limited high-end performances.

Keith Stewart dismissed Tommy Fleetwood at 22-1, citing his missed cut here last year and a pattern of contending without winning on the PGA Tour. Stewart argues the signature event’s intense competition historically favors proven closers, making Fleetwood a pass this week.

Stephen Hennessey took Tommy Fleetwood (-115) over Patrick Cantlay, banking on Fleetwood’s recent run of strong results and comfort on demanding courses. While he admires Cantlay’s form, Hennessey trusts Fleetwood to handle Bay Hill’s tricky setup more consistently at this stage.

Pat Perry advised against betting on Tommy Fleetwood at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, particularly at 25:1 odds. He believes that Fleetwood is less likely to win at this event and odds, and might be a better bet in tournaments like the Scottish Open or The Open. Perry noted that while Fleetwood's current form looks good, the odds are not favorable, and he doesn't think Fleetwood should be 25:1 in this field.

Brian Kirschner expressed that he does not believe Tommy Fleetwood is worth betting at 25-1 odds for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He noted that he would have considered betting Fleetwood if he remained at 35-1 odds, but at 25-1, he does not think Fleetwood represents good value in this field. Kirschner questioned whether Fleetwood can win this week and suggested he is more likely to win on links courses like the Scottish Open or The Open.

Alex Hunter highlighted Tommy Fleetwood’s excellent iron play, leading the PGA TOUR in SG: Approach. Fleetwood has three top-10 finishes in eight starts at Bay Hill and comes off a T5 at the Genesis Invitational. With four top-five finishes over his last eight worldwide events, Fleetwood projects as a strong DFS option.

Rick Gehman highlighted Tommy Fleetwood as a strong option for the Arnold Palmer Invitational due to his consistent top-20 finishes over the past six months. Fleetwood recently finished T5 at Torrey Pines, showcasing excellent play over the last three rounds. While his course history at Bay Hill is mixed, with some top-10 finishes and some less favorable results, Gehman prefers Fleetwood's well-rounded and consistent performance over other players in the 9K range who present concerns. Fleetwood's recent form makes him an appealing investment this week.

Kenny Kim recommended Tommy Fleetwood as a strong DFS option this week due to his excellent recent iron play. He noted that Fleetwood has gained 11 to 12 strokes with his irons over his last eight rounds on tour and is on fire in that aspect. Fleetwood ranks highly in key stats such as Tee-to-Green and strokes gained off the tee, and he's strong in proximity from 175 to 200 yards. Kenny highlighted that Fleetwood's overall game is well-suited for Bay Hill and that he could be a lower-owned option in DFS lineups.

Mike McClure recommended Tommy Fleetwood as a 35-1 longshot for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Fleetwood is coming off a T-5 finish at The Genesis Invitational, where he rebounded after an opening-round 75 with three sub-70 rounds. He also boasts three top-10 finishes at Bay Hill, including a T-3 in 2019. According to McClure’s model, Fleetwood’s Tour-leading strokes gained: approach to green and his eighth-place ranking in overall strokes gained make him poised for another strong result.

Matt Vincenzi recommended betting on Tommy Fleetwood at +3000 despite his lack of a PGA Tour win, pointing to Fleetwood’s impressive ball striking. He has gained strokes both off the tee and on approach in every start this season, including +5.12 strokes-gained on approach at the Genesis Invitational. Vincenzi emphasized Fleetwood’s history of defeating top players on the DP World Tour, comparing him to recent European Ryder Cuppers who claimed victories at Bay Hill. Vincenzi believes Fleetwood is well-positioned to finally break through on American soil.

Matt Vincenzi recommended Tommy Fleetwood at +3000, emphasizing his excellent approach and off-the-tee play this season. Fleetwood has gained strokes on both approach and off the tee in every start of 2025. At the Genesis Invitational, he ranked fifth in strokes-gained approach, adding +5.12. Vincenzi notes that while Fleetwood has yet to win on American soil, he has won seven times on the DP World Tour. Past European Ryder Cuppers like Francesco Molinari and Tyrrell Hatton have succeeded at Bay Hill, and Vincenzi believes Fleetwood can follow in their footsteps.

Ben Coley recommended betting on Tommy Fleetwood at 25/1 for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He highlighted Fleetwood’s third-place finish in 2019 and five strong efforts at Bay Hill before the event’s status was elevated. Coley noted Fleetwood’s iron play as arguably the best it has ever been, pointing out that Fleetwood has posted high-level tee-to-green metrics in 11 of his 12 appearances since the 2024 Open. He also emphasized Fleetwood’s top-five finish at Torrey Pines earlier this season and his improving putter. Coley said Bay Hill’s demanding conditions and forecasted wind should suit Fleetwood’s patience and strong ball-striking abilities.

Jason Sobel said Tommy Fleetwood is a proven winner with seven DP World Tour titles, the 10th-ranked player in the world, and a consistently strong ball-striker who has gained strokes off the tee in seven straight starts. Despite never having won in 147 PGA Tour appearances, he has five runner-up finishes, five third-place finishes, and 25 top-fives overall, along with three career top-10s at Bay Hill. Sobel pointed to Fleetwood’s strong form this year (T-21 in Dubai, T-22 at Pebble Beach, T-5 at Torrey Pines) and suggested Bay Hill could be where he finally breaks through on U.S. soil.

Jason Sobel said Tommy Fleetwood is a conservative outright pick for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, citing Fleetwood’s strong driver and iron play in recent starts. Sobel referenced Fleetwood’s seven DP World Tour titles, his T-5 finish at Torrey Pines, and his three career top-10s at Bay Hill. While acknowledging Fleetwood’s lack of a PGA Tour win in 147 starts, Sobel likened it to Phil Mickelson’s eventual major breakthrough, suggesting this could be the week Fleetwood captures a long-awaited U.S. victory.

Jason Rouslin recommended playing Tommy Fleetwood at $9,100, emphasizing his strong ball striking and positive course history at Bay Hill. Fleetwood has had good performances at this course over the years, including leading going into Saturday in 2019 before the course conditions changed dramatically. Rouslin noted that Fleetwood's ball striking makes him a solid play, and he has already bet on him at 30 to 1 odds, seeing it as a great price.

Steve Bamford tipped Tommy Fleetwood each way at 22/1, underscoring Fleetwood’s consistent tee-to-green performance and notable Florida record. Fleetwood has finished top-7 at Copperhead, PGA National, TPC Sawgrass, and here at Bay Hill (3rd in 2019). Bamford further highlighted Fleetwood’s strong Strokes Gained Approach numbers in recent starts—he was 4th for Greens in Regulation at Pebble Beach and 1st at Torrey Pines. Coupled with a history of success on TifEagle Bermudagrass greens (such as his Abu Dhabi wins), Bamford sees Fleetwood as a prime contender for a breakthrough PGA Tour victory.