Pat Mayo said Maverick McNealy is a strong outright bet at 55-1 given his three top-10 finishes in six 2025 starts. He highlighted McNealy’s current pairing of great iron play with elite putting, noting that avoiding trouble off the tee at Bay Hill would be the key to contending.

Pat Mayo highlighted Akshay Bhatia’s strong long-iron proximity—ranking fourth in the field from 200-plus yards—and newfound confidence with the putter. Bhatia’s accuracy off the tee could help him avoid big numbers, making him a viable dark-horse bet at 80-1.

Pat Mayo advised fading Xander Schauffele at 16-1 because of concerns about his two-month rib injury layoff and his lack of top-20 finishes at Bay Hill in three attempts. Mayo believes the price is too steep given the injury uncertainty.

Pat Mayo likes Taylor Pendrith at +350 for a top 10. Mayo points to Pendrith’s significantly improved iron play in 2025, hoping that Bay Hill’s difficult putting environment will minimize Pendrith’s recent struggles with the flat stick.

Brandon Gdula said Collin Morikawa continues his consistent ball-striking and expects a hot putter to separate him from the field. He emphasized that Morikawa’s distance-based putting splits and consistency with his irons make him a strong outright play at 20-1.

Brandon Gdula likes Sam Burns at 55-1, pointing out his comfort on Bermuda greens and strong short game. Burns is a top-20 iron player over the last 50 rounds, though Gdula cautions that he must keep the ball dry off the tee at Bay Hill.

Brandon Gdula is passing on Tommy Fleetwood at 25-1, explaining that Fleetwood’s recent strokes-gained ceiling isn’t matching the other elite players at the top of the board. Gdula believes the mark is too short considering Fleetwood’s limited high-end performances.

Brandon Gdula took Shane Lowry (-120) over Will Zalatoris, emphasizing Lowry’s edge in both short-term and long-term tee-to-green and putting metrics. Gdula expects Lowry’s all-around consistency to prevail at a challenging venue.

Brandon Gdula called Russell Henley a top-10 value play at +360, noting three top-10 finishes in his past five events. Gdula believes Henley’s form is better than the posted odds, even with Bay Hill not favoring shorter hitters.

Keith Stewart touted Ludvig Aberg at 16-1, praising his current confidence and reputation as a premier ball-striker. Stewart noted Aberg’s top-10 ranks in driving, approach, bogey avoidance, bunker play, and birdie-or-better percentage. He emphasized that the demanding long layout suits Aberg’s strength off the tee, making him a major threat to win again.

Keith Stewart tabbed Daniel Berger at 70-1, suggesting he’s less burdened by the media spotlight this week than he was at the prior event. Stewart emphasized Berger’s elite off-the-tee game, reliable long irons, and over five strokes gained per start recently as the formula for a potential upset at Bay Hill.

Keith Stewart dismissed Tommy Fleetwood at 22-1, citing his missed cut here last year and a pattern of contending without winning on the PGA Tour. Stewart argues the signature event’s intense competition historically favors proven closers, making Fleetwood a pass this week.

Keith Stewart took Ben Griffin (+100) over Taylor Pendrith, noting Griffin’s back-to-back fourth-place finishes at PGA National while Pendrith recently missed the cut. Stewart highlighted Pendrith’s six straight events losing strokes with his putter, making Griffin the more reliable head-to-head option.

Brandon Gdula backed Collin Morikawa at 20-1 odds, pointing out Morikawa’s consistently excellent iron play despite streaky putting. Gdula believes Morikawa’s ball-striking is good enough to overcome any cold spells on Bermuda greens, giving him a strong chance to claim victory.

Stephen Hennessey selected Rory McIlroy at +950, highlighting that Rory gains nearly two strokes per round on the field at Bay Hill—his second-best venue after Quail Hollow. Hennessey believes McIlroy’s course history and comfort level make him an excellent bet to secure another win in 2025.

Stephen Hennessey called Wyndham Clark at 61-1 a strong sleeper, recalling Clark’s second-place finish at Bay Hill last year. He believes Clark’s proven ability on this long, tough course, along with his winning upside, justifies a bet at these odds.

Stephen Hennessey is fading Xander Schauffele at 16-1, pointing to Schauffele’s first start since the Tournament of Champions in Maui. The extended downtime due to injury, plus limited course success, makes Schauffele too risky at this short price.

Stephen Hennessey took Tommy Fleetwood (-115) over Patrick Cantlay, banking on Fleetwood’s recent run of strong results and comfort on demanding courses. While he admires Cantlay’s form, Hennessey trusts Fleetwood to handle Bay Hill’s tricky setup more consistently at this stage.

Stephen Hennessey recommended Russell Henley for a top-10 at +360, echoing Henley’s own claim that his ball-striking feels as sharp as ever. Hennessey added that Bay Hill’s long rough and tricky greens reward Henley’s strong short game, setting him up for another high finish.

Christopher Powers is backing Russell Henley at 44-1, pointing to Henley’s strong recent form, including multiple Sunday chances and a gain of over five strokes tee-to-green at the Cognizant Classic. He believes Henley’s improved ball-striking in Florida courses should help him finally convert against a strong field.

Christopher Powers also returned to Daniel Berger at 70-1, citing three consecutive top-25 finishes, plus a solid 13th at Bay Hill in a previous start. Powers expects his all-around consistency to stack up against a stout Arnold Palmer Invitational field.

Christopher Powers loves Xander Schauffele but says it’s too soon to back him at 16-1 off an injury. He doubts Schauffele’s ability to contend with limited recent reps and an elite field at Bay Hill.

Christopher Powers once again sides with Ben Griffin (+100) over Taylor Pendrith, pointing to Griffin’s recent back-to-back fourth-place finishes and his scorching form in Florida swings. Powers feels there’s no reason to fade him now.

Christopher Powers tabs Harris English at +650 for a top-10 finish. Citing English’s solid all-around game, Powers notes four straight finishes of 26th or better at Bay Hill and believes his tee-to-green prowess is undervalued this week.

Andy Lack backed Patrick Cantlay at 28-1, highlighting Cantlay’s top-five finish at Torrey Pines and the 3.5 strokes gained on approach there. Lack expects Cantlay’s putter to heat up and return to the levels that have made him one of the best on the PGA Tour, a key factor on Bay Hill’s demanding greens.

Andy Lack singled out Sam Burns again at 55-1, highlighting that Burns is the best Bermuda putter in this field over the last three seasons. Lack believes Burns’s recent progress off the tee and iron consistency can combine with his putting prowess for a strong sleeper performance at Bay Hill.

Andy Lack is fading Hideki Matsuyama at 25-1 due to worries about his downward trending approach play. Lack argues that Bay Hill’s demanding tee-to-green test punishes even slight ball-striking lapses, making Matsuyama a risky choice compared to other top contenders at similar odds.

Andy Lack likes Ludvig Aberg (-115) over Collin Morikawa, citing Aberg’s power off the tee as a critical edge at Bay Hill’s long layout. Lack mentioned Morikawa’s up-and-down form in 2025, making Aberg the favored side in this head-to-head.

Andy Lack also sees Justin Thomas as a top-10 candidate at +230, citing over 13 strokes gained on approach across his last two starts. Although Lack is hesitant to pick Thomas outright due to spotty putting, he expects JT’s elite iron play to keep him on the leaderboard this week.

Andy Lack recommended Patrick Cantlay at 28-1, noting his top-five at Torrey Pines, where he gained 3.5 strokes on approach and 6 strokes with the putter. Lack says Cantlay could regain his elite putting soon, making him a serious contender at Bay Hill.