Mike McClure identified Justin Thomas as a 28-1 sleeper for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational, citing Thomas’s back-to-back top-10 finishes (including a T-9 at The Genesis Invitational) and his strong strokes gained metrics. Thomas ranks seventh overall in strokes gained this season, second in Par 4 scoring and putting average, and fourth in scoring average (68.5). McClure’s model projects Thomas’s hot start to continue at Bay Hill.

Mike McClure recommended Tommy Fleetwood as a 35-1 longshot for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Fleetwood is coming off a T-5 finish at The Genesis Invitational, where he rebounded after an opening-round 75 with three sub-70 rounds. He also boasts three top-10 finishes at Bay Hill, including a T-3 in 2019. According to McClure’s model, Fleetwood’s Tour-leading strokes gained: approach to green and his eighth-place ranking in overall strokes gained make him poised for another strong result.

Mike McClure pegged Viktor Hovland as a 55-1 value play at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational despite his missed cut at The Genesis Invitational. Hovland was 12th in the final FedEx Cup standings last year and claimed the overall title the previous season, logging 18 top-25 finishes in 23 events. He has made the cut all six times at Bay Hill, highlighted by a T-2 finish in 2022. McClure’s model expects a rebound from Hovland based on his proven consistency and track record on challenging courses.

Mike McClure said his model projects Rory McIlroy to struggle at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. McIlroy won this event in 2018 but has finished T-13 or worse in two of his last three starts at Bay Hill. His accuracy off the tee is down this season, ranking 125th in driving accuracy at 56.25%. McIlroy’s birdie average (4.13) currently sits 82nd on tour, and he’s 93rd in strokes gained: putting (0.050). These underwhelming metrics suggest a below-par performance for him at Bay Hill.

Mike McClure advised targeting Patrick Cantlay as a 30-1 longshot who has a strong chance to outperform his odds at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Cantlay ranks second on the PGA Tour in greens in regulation (76.39%) and sixth in putting average (1.655), helping him average 5.56 birdies per round. McClure pointed to Cantlay’s precision iron play and consistent putting as key reasons the model sees him as a top sleeper at Bay Hill.

Mike McClure advised against paying up for Russell Henley at $10,700 in DFS contests for the Cognizant Classic. Despite Henley’s past success at this venue, including a 2014 victory, McClure cited Henley’s recurring losses off the tee in six of his last seven starts. He believes the current form doesn’t justify the premium price, especially given the depth of appealing options in the 9k range.

Mike McClure identified Min Woo Lee as a strong DFS target in the 9k range for the Cognizant Classic. He praised Lee’s recent finishes, including a T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and a T17 at Pebble Beach, noting that one poor second round at the Genesis was the only thing keeping him from another top-15. McClure believes Lee’s length off the tee and upside on Florida courses give him genuine win equity in a non-elevated field, making the $9,200 price tag particularly enticing.

Mike McClure echoed support for Denny McCarthy in DFS lineups, citing his T5 at the Genesis and multiple top-20 finishes this season. McClure noted that while McCarthy’s distance is lacking, his improving approach play and busy tournament schedule keep him sharp. The strong short game should give him an edge on the challenging greens at the Cognizant Classic, making McClure confident that McCarthy’s $9k salary can pay off in a big way.

Mike McClure said he is fading Sungjae Im in DFS at $9,800 due to Im’s lackluster 2025 performances and negative approach play in his last four trips to this course. McClure prefers to pivot to other 9K options and indicated he would hedge his DFS fade by placing a top-20 (or similar) finishing bet. He believes that unless Im outright wins, a mid-tier finish would both cash his wager and avoid torpedoing his DFS lineups.

Mike McClure recommended Ben Griffin at $8,500 in DFS, citing Griffin’s steady all-around game and low blow-up potential. McClure emphasized that Griffin benefits from this weaker field, has made the cut consistently (with only two missed cuts since the 3M Open), and therefore offers both a solid floor and a decent path to contention at his salary. McClure also noted that Griffin’s ownership likely won’t be extreme, which helps with lineup differentiation.

Mike McClure said he is returning to Kurt Kitayama in DFS at $8,300, explaining that Kitayama’s disappointing showing in Mexico can be discounted due to the different putting surface. McClure noted that this particular setup suits Kitayama much better, and that the significant price drop from $10,200 to $8,300 provides strong value. He emphasized Kitayama’s reliable ball striking and high upside, concluding that the reward outweighs the risk at this cost.

Mike McClure explained why he's fading Patrick Rodgers in DFS despite Rodgers’s recent success. He noted that Rodgers still struggles with approach play and may attract higher ownership simply because his name has appeared more often on leaderboards. McClure also pointed out that shifting to Florida’s putting surfaces could present additional challenges, and he prefers paying a bit more for players like Ben Griffin or Kurt Kitayama instead.

Mike McClure praised Luke Clanton as an elite model darling priced at $7,700 when he thinks $8,500 would be more appropriate. McClure cited Clanton’s distance off the tee, familiarity with the putting surfaces, and strong data profile despite a limited sample. He also emphasized Clanton’s motivation to make the cut for his Tour card, making him a potentially lucrative DFS target this week.

Mike McClure said he sees model value on Joel Dahmen at +475 for a top-20 finish, citing Dahmen’s improved approach play and strong results at Torrey Pines and Mexico. McClure believes Dahmen’s ball-striking trends and the weaker field present solid upside and make this bet worthwhile.

Mike McClure said he is fading Brian Campbell’s chances of going back-to-back following Campbell’s improbable victory in Mexico. Comparing Campbell’s win to flukes by Jim Herman and Michael Kim, McClure doubts the sustainability of Campbell’s form. He cautions that a missed cut would not be surprising given the metrics.

Mike McClure said Bud Cauley at $7,300 is an attractive DFS play. Over his last 24 rounds, Cauley ranks 10th in total strokes gained, driven by reliable off-the-tee performance and hitting greens in regulation. McClure is less concerned about Cauley’s putting struggles, focusing instead on the ball-striking metrics in this weaker field.

Mike McClure said his SportsLine model projects Russell Henley to struggle at the 2025 Cognizant Classic. The model points to Henley’s shaky recent form, highlighted by the fact he hasn’t posted a PGA Tour win since 2022. The model also cites Henley’s ranking of 99th in total driving, 148th in strokes gained off the tee, and 179th in driving distance this season as signs he could fall short of expectations. Additionally, Henley only managed a T-41 finish at this tournament last year, further dampening his outlook.

Mike McClure said his SportsLine model sees Denny McCarthy as a top under-the-radar contender at long 40-1 odds for the 2025 Cognizant Classic. Despite still chasing his first PGA Tour win, McCarthy has shown promising form with top-16 finishes in three of his last four starts, including a T-5 at the Genesis Invitational. His 22nd-ranked scoring average and 48th-ranked greens in regulation percentage suggest he has the consistency needed to contend this week at PGA National, making him a strong value bet.