Ben Coley recommended betting on Tommy Fleetwood at 25/1 for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He highlighted Fleetwood’s third-place finish in 2019 and five strong efforts at Bay Hill before the event’s status was elevated. Coley noted Fleetwood’s iron play as arguably the best it has ever been, pointing out that Fleetwood has posted high-level tee-to-green metrics in 11 of his 12 appearances since the 2024 Open. He also emphasized Fleetwood’s top-five finish at Torrey Pines earlier this season and his improving putter. Coley said Bay Hill’s demanding conditions and forecasted wind should suit Fleetwood’s patience and strong ball-striking abilities.

Ben Coley advised backing Shane Lowry at 35/1, citing Lowry’s months-long run of outstanding tee-to-green form, including a third-place finish at Bay Hill last year. Lowry has gained strokes in 30 of his last 31 measured starts and was second only to Rory McIlroy at Pebble Beach this season. Coley underscored Lowry’s excellent record in Florida, where he has notched nine top-20 finishes (including four top-fives) in 12 starts over the past four years. Coley pointed to Lowry’s comfort on bermuda grass and the likelihood of challenging weather conditions, which typically accentuates Lowry’s ability to control his ball and remain patient.

Ben Coley endorsed Keegan Bradley at 55/1, highlighting Bradley’s strong track record at Bay Hill, including a runner-up finish in 2014 and multiple top-10s. Coley noted that Bradley’s putting has historically improved on bermuda surfaces, which has boosted his results here—he’s gained strokes putting in each of his last four appearances at Bay Hill. Coley reminded readers that Bradley gained strokes off the tee and with his irons in early 2025 events, and he believes the demanding conditions at Bay Hill and tough Florida weather play to Bradley’s strength as a proven performer on challenging setups.

Ben Coley advised taking a chance on Viktor Hovland at 55/1 outright and 50/1 for first-round leader. He pointed to Hovland’s near-miss at Bay Hill in 2022, where he took second, and his tenth-place finish in 2023, when thick rough around the greens favored Hovland’s ball-striking. Although Hovland’s recent form has been mixed—partly due to a minor foot injury—Coley argued that Hovland still gained strokes via his tee-to-green game in his last two starts. He expects Bay Hill’s point-and-shoot nature to play to Hovland’s strengths, giving him the upside to contend or even lead after Thursday’s round.

Ben Coley identified Lee Hodges as a strong candidate to contend at PGA National due to his recent form of four top-10 finishes in seven events, including a ninth-place showing at the Farmers. Hodges attributes his improvement this season to more consistent putting, having changed his routine to address prior issues. Coley also noted Hodges’ past success at this venue, where he posted two strong finishes (14th in 2023 and ninth in 2022). His solid iron play and tidy driving are seen as key advantages on a course that penalizes wayward shots.

Ben Coley advised backing Bud Cauley, highlighting his improving ball-striking a little over a year after returning from a lengthy injury layoff. Cauley has shown flashes of his old tee-to-green reliability in recent starts, finishing fifth in Mississippi during the FedExFall portion and posting consistent results (34th, 25th, 30th, 21st) in 2025. Coley pointed to Cauley’s past performances at PGA National, where he has often been hampered by poor putting. With his putter showing signs of life in Phoenix, Coley expects the combination of strong iron play and comfort on this layout to give Cauley a genuine chance to secure his first PGA Tour title.

Ben Coley praised Ryan Gerard’s readiness for a standout performance at the Cognizant Classic, noting his five-for-five made cuts on the PGA Tour this season and a history of significant finishes (three top-20s) in fields similar to this one. Gerard has roots in Florida golf, previously winning a junior event at PGA National in 2015 and finishing fourth here in his PGA Tour debut two years ago. According to Coley, Gerard’s combination of solid driving, quality iron play, and strong putting makes him a clear value pick in this field.

Ben Coley named Kevin Roy as a sleeper pick at the Cognizant Classic, referencing his ball-striking prowess and familiarity with Florida conditions. Ranked first in total driving, Roy placed 29th here in 2023 despite entering on poor form. This season, he’s coming off a promising 17th-place finish in Mexico, indicating a return to the form that once put him high on the strokes-gained approach leaderboard. Coley believes Roy’s improved putting, combined with his consistent off-the-tee and iron displays, makes him a strong fit at PGA National.

Ben Coley highlighted Matteo Manassero as a dark horse for the Cognizant Classic, applauding the Italian’s solid approach play and recent consistency after rebuilding his career. Manassero has made three straight cuts in 2025, including an encouraging 25th place at Torrey Pines, and has past PGA National success (29th and 12th in earlier appearances). Coley believes the course’s emphasis on strategic ball-striking and strong putting lines up with Manassero’s strengths, making him capable of delivering a shocking victory and continuing his remarkable comeback.

Ben Coley said Billy Horschel is a prime candidate to thrive at PGA National, noting he grew up in Florida and has a strong track record at this event, including ninth last year and a near-win in 2017. Coley highlighted Horschel’s consistent tee-to-green displays in past appearances and reminded readers of his victory on another Nicklaus course (Muirfield Village). Despite recent missed cuts on the tougher West Coast swing, Coley emphasized that Horschel’s approach play remains solid (32nd in strokes-gained approach at Torrey Pines) and that he’s determined to finally secure a win in his home state.