Matt Vincenzi recommended betting on Justin Thomas at +2500, citing his returned approach advantage after he led the field at the Genesis Invitational with +9.36 strokes-gained on approach—his best since the 2021 WGC Workday Championship. Thomas has also placed T21 and T12 in his past two starts at Bay Hill, gaining strokes both off the tee and on approach in each. Vincenzi noted Thomas ranks 11th in total strokes gained in Florida and believes his renewed iron play positions him to end a 656-day winless drought.

Matt Vincenzi recommended backing Patrick Cantlay at +3000, highlighting hisstring of positive results this season (T15, T5, T33, T5) and improved iron play in his two most recent events, where he gained more than four strokes on approach each time. While Cantlay underperformed at Bay Hill last year, he registered a T4 finish in his 2023 debut. Vincenzi believes Cantlay’s ball-striking consistency and ability to contend with top-tier opponents like McIlroy and Scheffler make him a prime candidate to secure a victory at Bay Hill.

Matt Vincenzi recommended betting on Tommy Fleetwood at +3000 despite his lack of a PGA Tour win, pointing to Fleetwood’s impressive ball striking. He has gained strokes both off the tee and on approach in every start this season, including +5.12 strokes-gained on approach at the Genesis Invitational. Vincenzi emphasized Fleetwood’s history of defeating top players on the DP World Tour, comparing him to recent European Ryder Cuppers who claimed victories at Bay Hill. Vincenzi believes Fleetwood is well-positioned to finally break through on American soil.

Matt Vincenzi advised betting on Shane Lowry at +6500, stressing Lowry’s reliability in challenging conditions and elite short-game skills. Though he struggled early last week, Lowry rebounded with excellent approach numbers over the weekend, leading the field in strokes-gained on Saturday and ranking eighth on Sunday. Vincenzi noted Lowry’s T3 finish at Bay Hill in 2024 and believes his skill set—particularly in windy or difficult scoring environments—makes him a strong under-the-radar pick for contention this year.

Matt Vincenzi recommended taking a chance on Min Woo Lee at +8000 after his second consecutive top-15 finish. Vincenzi pointed out Lee’s ranking of 19th in strokes-gained off the tee and fourth around the green over his past 24 rounds, underscoring his well-rounded skill set. Lee has three starts at Bay Hill—missing two cuts before finishing 44th last year, aided by +3.8 strokes-gained on approach. With another season of experience, Vincenzi sees Lee as an emerging threat at Bay Hill.

Matt Vincenzi said Justin Thomas is a top betting option at +2500 because of his elite iron play. Thomas led the Genesis Invitational field in strokes gained on approach, totaling +9.36, his best performance since 2021. He has also finished T21 in 2023 and T12 in 2024 at Bay Hill while gaining strokes off the tee and on approach each time. Over his past 24 rounds, Thomas leads the field in strokes-gained approach, ranks second in ball striking, and sits 11th in both par-5 scoring average and total strokes gained in Florida. Vincenzi believes these factors make him likely to break his 656-day winless drought.

Matt Vincenzi identified Patrick Cantlay at +3000 as a strong contender to win at Bay Hill. Cantlay has been striking the ball extremely well in 2025, posting finishes of T15, T5, T33, and T5. He has gained over five strokes on approach in each of his past two starts, confirming his iron play is peaking. Although Cantlay struggled here last year, he finished T4 on debut in 2023. Vincenzi believes Cantlay can go toe-to-toe with Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler if he brings his best game this week.

Matt Vincenzi recommended Tommy Fleetwood at +3000, emphasizing his excellent approach and off-the-tee play this season. Fleetwood has gained strokes on both approach and off the tee in every start of 2025. At the Genesis Invitational, he ranked fifth in strokes-gained approach, adding +5.12. Vincenzi notes that while Fleetwood has yet to win on American soil, he has won seven times on the DP World Tour. Past European Ryder Cuppers like Francesco Molinari and Tyrrell Hatton have succeeded at Bay Hill, and Vincenzi believes Fleetwood can follow in their footsteps.

Matt Vincenzi pointed to Shane Lowry at +6500 as a formidable pick at Bay Hill, especially if conditions turn difficult. Despite only finishing T11 last week at a softened PGA National, Lowry’s weekend ball striking stood out, gaining 3.08 strokes on approach Saturday (a field-leading mark) and 1.96 on Sunday. He managed a third-place finish here last year and typically excels on tough tracks and in windy conditions. Vincenzi anticipates a single-digit winning score, which suits Lowry’s grinding style.

Matt Vincenzi sees Min Woo Lee at +8000 as an intriguing long shot based on his tee-to-green strength and short-game prowess. Lee finished inside the top 15 in back-to-back starts on the Florida Swing, and he has gained significant strokes off the tee and around the green over his past 24 rounds. Although he has missed cuts in two of his three starts at Bay Hill, Lee gained 3.8 strokes on approach there last year, suggesting he may be on the brink of a breakthrough at this venue.

Matt Vincenzi said he is picking Shane Lowry at +2000, emphasizing Lowry’s three consecutive top-four finishes at PGA National and his Jupiter, Florida residence. Vincenzi also highlighted Lowry’s ranking of first in strokes-gained total in Florida and second in strokes-gained total on difficult courses.

Matt Vincenzi said he is picking Danny Willett at +35000, citing Willett’s success in difficult conditions, his Orlando residency, and a recent T9 at Torrey Pines. Vincenzi emphasized Willett’s accuracy and putting, which should help him navigate the challenges at PGA National.

Matt Vincenzi said he is picking Gary Woodland at +8000 for first-round leader, emphasizing Woodland’s success at PGA National and his solid ball-striking so far in 2025. Vincenzi believes that a good putting day can propel Woodland to a low opening round.

Matt Vincenzi said he is picking Matteo Manassero for a Top 20 at +500, noting the Italian’s accuracy and polished around-the-green game. Vincenzi believes PGA National suits Manassero better than the longer tracks on the West Coast swing.