Matt Vincenzi recommended betting on Justin Thomas at +2500, citing his returned approach advantage after he led the field at the Genesis Invitational with +9.36 strokes-gained on approach—his best since the 2021 WGC Workday Championship. Thomas has also placed T21 and T12 in his past two starts at Bay Hill, gaining strokes both off the tee and on approach in each. Vincenzi noted Thomas ranks 11th in total strokes gained in Florida and believes his renewed iron play positions him to end a 656-day winless drought.

Matt Vincenzi recommended backing Patrick Cantlay at +3000, highlighting hisstring of positive results this season (T15, T5, T33, T5) and improved iron play in his two most recent events, where he gained more than four strokes on approach each time. While Cantlay underperformed at Bay Hill last year, he registered a T4 finish in his 2023 debut. Vincenzi believes Cantlay’s ball-striking consistency and ability to contend with top-tier opponents like McIlroy and Scheffler make him a prime candidate to secure a victory at Bay Hill.

Matt Vincenzi recommended betting on Tommy Fleetwood at +3000 despite his lack of a PGA Tour win, pointing to Fleetwood’s impressive ball striking. He has gained strokes both off the tee and on approach in every start this season, including +5.12 strokes-gained on approach at the Genesis Invitational. Vincenzi emphasized Fleetwood’s history of defeating top players on the DP World Tour, comparing him to recent European Ryder Cuppers who claimed victories at Bay Hill. Vincenzi believes Fleetwood is well-positioned to finally break through on American soil.

Matt Vincenzi advised betting on Shane Lowry at +6500, stressing Lowry’s reliability in challenging conditions and elite short-game skills. Though he struggled early last week, Lowry rebounded with excellent approach numbers over the weekend, leading the field in strokes-gained on Saturday and ranking eighth on Sunday. Vincenzi noted Lowry’s T3 finish at Bay Hill in 2024 and believes his skill set—particularly in windy or difficult scoring environments—makes him a strong under-the-radar pick for contention this year.

Matt Vincenzi recommended taking a chance on Min Woo Lee at +8000 after his second consecutive top-15 finish. Vincenzi pointed out Lee’s ranking of 19th in strokes-gained off the tee and fourth around the green over his past 24 rounds, underscoring his well-rounded skill set. Lee has three starts at Bay Hill—missing two cuts before finishing 44th last year, aided by +3.8 strokes-gained on approach. With another season of experience, Vincenzi sees Lee as an emerging threat at Bay Hill.

Matt Vincenzi said Justin Thomas is a top betting option at +2500 because of his elite iron play. Thomas led the Genesis Invitational field in strokes gained on approach, totaling +9.36, his best performance since 2021. He has also finished T21 in 2023 and T12 in 2024 at Bay Hill while gaining strokes off the tee and on approach each time. Over his past 24 rounds, Thomas leads the field in strokes-gained approach, ranks second in ball striking, and sits 11th in both par-5 scoring average and total strokes gained in Florida. Vincenzi believes these factors make him likely to break his 656-day winless drought.

Matt Vincenzi identified Patrick Cantlay at +3000 as a strong contender to win at Bay Hill. Cantlay has been striking the ball extremely well in 2025, posting finishes of T15, T5, T33, and T5. He has gained over five strokes on approach in each of his past two starts, confirming his iron play is peaking. Although Cantlay struggled here last year, he finished T4 on debut in 2023. Vincenzi believes Cantlay can go toe-to-toe with Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler if he brings his best game this week.

Matt Vincenzi recommended Tommy Fleetwood at +3000, emphasizing his excellent approach and off-the-tee play this season. Fleetwood has gained strokes on both approach and off the tee in every start of 2025. At the Genesis Invitational, he ranked fifth in strokes-gained approach, adding +5.12. Vincenzi notes that while Fleetwood has yet to win on American soil, he has won seven times on the DP World Tour. Past European Ryder Cuppers like Francesco Molinari and Tyrrell Hatton have succeeded at Bay Hill, and Vincenzi believes Fleetwood can follow in their footsteps.

Matt Vincenzi pointed to Shane Lowry at +6500 as a formidable pick at Bay Hill, especially if conditions turn difficult. Despite only finishing T11 last week at a softened PGA National, Lowry’s weekend ball striking stood out, gaining 3.08 strokes on approach Saturday (a field-leading mark) and 1.96 on Sunday. He managed a third-place finish here last year and typically excels on tough tracks and in windy conditions. Vincenzi anticipates a single-digit winning score, which suits Lowry’s grinding style.

Matt Vincenzi sees Min Woo Lee at +8000 as an intriguing long shot based on his tee-to-green strength and short-game prowess. Lee finished inside the top 15 in back-to-back starts on the Florida Swing, and he has gained significant strokes off the tee and around the green over his past 24 rounds. Although he has missed cuts in two of his three starts at Bay Hill, Lee gained 3.8 strokes on approach there last year, suggesting he may be on the brink of a breakthrough at this venue.

Iain MacMillan said he is picking Keith Mitchell at +3500 for his ability to hit greens, scramble well, and avoid bogeys. Mitchell ranks 14th, 3rd, and 3rd in those categories, respectively, is a past winner at PGA National, and has notched top-10 finishes in his most recent appearances here.

Matt Vincenzi said he is picking Shane Lowry at +2000, emphasizing Lowry’s three consecutive top-four finishes at PGA National and his Jupiter, Florida residence. Vincenzi also highlighted Lowry’s ranking of first in strokes-gained total in Florida and second in strokes-gained total on difficult courses.

John Schwarb said he is picking Daniel Berger at +2800, noting Berger’s Florida roots and strong form, including a T2 at the WM Phoenix Open and a 12th-place finish at the Genesis. Schwarb cited Berger’s two fourths and a runner-up finish at the Champion course, as well as his comfort in potential windy conditions.

Brian Kirschner said he is picking Billy Horschel at +5500 due to Horschel’s history of winning on various courses, five top-16 finishes at PGA National, and a recent top-5 finish at Pebble Beach. Kirschner expects Horschel’s comfort on Bermuda greens to give him an edge.

Cody Williams said he is picking Daniel Berger at +2800, pointing to Berger’s three top-21 finishes in his last four starts, including a runner-up at Phoenix and 12th at the Genesis. Williams highlighted Berger’s strong approach play, steady driving accuracy, and success in windy conditions.

Brian Giuffra said he is picking Sepp Straka at +2500, citing Straka’s 11th-ranked driving accuracy, fifth in proximity to the hole on approach, and 13th in strokes-gained approach. Giuffra also highlighted Straka’s past success at PGA National, with a win and a top-5 finish in recent years.

Iain MacMillan said he is picking Bud Cauley at +7500, noting that Cauley leads the PGA Tour in scrambling percentage and bogey avoidance. MacMillan also pointed to Cauley’s recent T21 finish at the WM Phoenix Open and a T21 here last year as reasons to back him.

Matt Vincenzi said he is picking Danny Willett at +35000, citing Willett’s success in difficult conditions, his Orlando residency, and a recent T9 at Torrey Pines. Vincenzi emphasized Willett’s accuracy and putting, which should help him navigate the challenges at PGA National.

John Schwarb said he is picking Eric Cole at +9000, recalling Cole’s playoff loss here two years ago and his encouraging finishes this season (fifth at the Sony Open, T22 at Pebble Beach). Schwarb believes the Florida swing may help Cole regain form.

Brian Kirschner said he is picking Joe Highsmith at +11000 based on Highsmith’s 17th-place finish in Mexico, where he gained six strokes ball-striking. Kirschner noted that Highsmith has gained on approach in three consecutive starts, making him a worthwhile longshot at PGA National.

Cody Williams said he is picking Ryan Gerard at +8000 after Gerard’s consecutive top-20 finishes in his last two starts. Williams noted Gerard’s strong ball-striking at PGA National in 2023, where he posted a fourth-place finish and gained 8.5 strokes tee to green.

Brian Giuffra said he is picking Lucas Glover at +6000, highlighting Glover’s fourth-ranked driving accuracy and 10th-ranked proximity to the hole. Giuffra also noted Glover’s elite scrambling ability, solid putter performance this year, and a past top-5 finish at this course.

Iain MacMillan said he is picking Harry Hall at +7000 for first-round leader, citing Hall’s 25th-place scrambling and 12th in strokes-gained putting. Hall also ranks second on Tour in Round 1 scoring average (67.00), which MacMillan believes points to another fast start.

Matt Vincenzi said he is picking Gary Woodland at +8000 for first-round leader, emphasizing Woodland’s success at PGA National and his solid ball-striking so far in 2025. Vincenzi believes that a good putting day can propel Woodland to a low opening round.

John Schwarb said he is picking Shane Lowry at +4000 for first-round leader, referencing Lowry’s three straight top-5 finishes at this event and a runner-up at Pebble Beach. Schwarb prefers Lowry’s higher FRL odds to an outright bet this week.

Brian Kirschner said he is picking Beau Hossler at +7000 for first-round leader due to Hossler’s early Thursday tee time and track record of fast starts. Kirschner recalled Hossler achieving a first-round lead earlier this season on a Bermuda-heavy course.

Cody Williams said he is picking Jackson Suber at +10000 for first-round leader, highlighting Suber’s strong approach play where he ranks fourth in this field over the last 12 rounds. Williams believes a hot start is possible if Suber continues striking the ball well.

Brian Giuffra said he is picking Russell Henley at +4500 for first-round leader, citing Henley’s early tee time, 68.9 first-round scoring average at PGA National, and formidable putting ability. Giuffra sees Henley’s accuracy and short-game prowess as keys to a hot start.

Iain MacMillan said he is picking Mackenzie Hughes at +300 to be the top Canadian, explaining he’s fading Taylor Pendrith’s short game and approach struggles. MacMillan also noted Hughes’s 2020 runner-up finish at PGA National and reliable play around the greens.

Matt Vincenzi said he is picking Matteo Manassero for a Top 20 at +500, noting the Italian’s accuracy and polished around-the-green game. Vincenzi believes PGA National suits Manassero better than the longer tracks on the West Coast swing.

John Schwarb said he is picking Billy Horschel at +200 for a Top 20, citing Horschel’s Florida background, five top-20 finishes at PGA National, and his strong strokes-gained approach ranking this season. Schwarb expects Horschel to thrive on home-state Bermuda greens.

Brian Kirschner said he is picking J.J. Spaun for a Top 20 at +225, emphasizing Spaun’s run of gaining strokes on approach in every start since last March. Kirschner also cited Spaun’s strong showings on comp courses like Waialae and Sedgefield as evidence of a good course fit.

Cody Williams said he is picking Lucas Glover for a Top 20 at +225, pointing to Glover’s second-place ranking in strokes-gained approach from 175-200 yards over the last 20 rounds. Williams noted Glover’s success at Pebble Beach and multiple top-20 finishes at PGA National.

Brian Giuffra said he is picking Shane Lowry for a Top 20 at +120, referencing Lowry’s T4, T5, and runner-up finishes over the last three visits to PGA National. Giuffra also emphasized Lowry’s 25th-ranked driving accuracy and first in proximity to the hole this season.