Mike McClure identified Justin Thomas as a 28-1 sleeper for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational, citing Thomas’s back-to-back top-10 finishes (including a T-9 at The Genesis Invitational) and his strong strokes gained metrics. Thomas ranks seventh overall in strokes gained this season, second in Par 4 scoring and putting average, and fourth in scoring average (68.5). McClure’s model projects Thomas’s hot start to continue at Bay Hill.

Mike McClure recommended Tommy Fleetwood as a 35-1 longshot for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Fleetwood is coming off a T-5 finish at The Genesis Invitational, where he rebounded after an opening-round 75 with three sub-70 rounds. He also boasts three top-10 finishes at Bay Hill, including a T-3 in 2019. According to McClure’s model, Fleetwood’s Tour-leading strokes gained: approach to green and his eighth-place ranking in overall strokes gained make him poised for another strong result.

Mike McClure pegged Viktor Hovland as a 55-1 value play at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational despite his missed cut at The Genesis Invitational. Hovland was 12th in the final FedEx Cup standings last year and claimed the overall title the previous season, logging 18 top-25 finishes in 23 events. He has made the cut all six times at Bay Hill, highlighted by a T-2 finish in 2022. McClure’s model expects a rebound from Hovland based on his proven consistency and track record on challenging courses.

Mike McClure said his model projects Rory McIlroy to struggle at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. McIlroy won this event in 2018 but has finished T-13 or worse in two of his last three starts at Bay Hill. His accuracy off the tee is down this season, ranking 125th in driving accuracy at 56.25%. McIlroy’s birdie average (4.13) currently sits 82nd on tour, and he’s 93rd in strokes gained: putting (0.050). These underwhelming metrics suggest a below-par performance for him at Bay Hill.

Mike McClure advised targeting Patrick Cantlay as a 30-1 longshot who has a strong chance to outperform his odds at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Cantlay ranks second on the PGA Tour in greens in regulation (76.39%) and sixth in putting average (1.655), helping him average 5.56 birdies per round. McClure pointed to Cantlay’s precision iron play and consistent putting as key reasons the model sees him as a top sleeper at Bay Hill.

Mike McClure said his SportsLine model projects Russell Henley to struggle at the 2025 Cognizant Classic. The model points to Henley’s shaky recent form, highlighted by the fact he hasn’t posted a PGA Tour win since 2022. The model also cites Henley’s ranking of 99th in total driving, 148th in strokes gained off the tee, and 179th in driving distance this season as signs he could fall short of expectations. Additionally, Henley only managed a T-41 finish at this tournament last year, further dampening his outlook.

Mike McClure said his SportsLine model sees Denny McCarthy as a top under-the-radar contender at long 40-1 odds for the 2025 Cognizant Classic. Despite still chasing his first PGA Tour win, McCarthy has shown promising form with top-16 finishes in three of his last four starts, including a T-5 at the Genesis Invitational. His 22nd-ranked scoring average and 48th-ranked greens in regulation percentage suggest he has the consistency needed to contend this week at PGA National, making him a strong value bet.