Andy Lack also sees Justin Thomas as a top-10 candidate at +230, citing over 13 strokes gained on approach across his last two starts. Although Lack is hesitant to pick Thomas outright due to spotty putting, he expects JT’s elite iron play to keep him on the leaderboard this week.

Keith Stewart is bullish on Justin Thomas at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, especially if the winning score stays between 8 and 10 under par. He highlights Thomas's excellent short game and wedge play, considering him one of the best in the field alongside Hideki Matsuyama. While Thomas may miss fairways, his strong short game makes him a strong contender in tougher scoring conditions. Stewart believes that if the score remains low, Thomas is "100% live" in the tournament, not just for a usual backdoor top 10 finish.

Matt Jerzyk identified Justin Thomas as a strong contender for the Arnold Palmer Invitational due to his exceptional recent performance with his approach shots. Jerzyk noted that Thomas has been consistently gaining over eight strokes on approach, a rare feat that indicates he is in peak form. He emphasized that the course at Bay Hill requires distance and spike approach play, and Thomas is excelling in both categories. Thomas looks confident and is 'striping' the ball. Additionally, Jerzyk observed that Thomas was so focused during practice that he chose to play alone, indicating his serious preparation for the tournament. Jerzyk is considering placing a 'single bullet' bet on Thomas at 25-28 to 1 odds.

Matt Jerzyk identified Justin Thomas as a strong contender for the Arnold Palmer Invitational due to his exceptional recent performance with his approach shots. Jerzyk noted that Thomas is 'on fire' and displaying 'prime JT approach', looking confident and 'striping' the ball. He also mentioned that Thomas is focusing during practice rounds, even choosing to practice alone to concentrate better. Additionally, with his odds at 28 to 1, Jerzyk believes this is a fair number and is considering placing a 'single bullet' bet on Thomas due to his current form and favorable odds.

Matt Jerzyk identified Justin Thomas as a strong contender for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, emphasizing that his odds at 30-1 offer excellent value. Jerzyk was surprised that Thomas's odds were not shorter despite his high ranking among sharps and his strong recent form. He suggests that the lack of odds movement presents a valuable betting opportunity on Thomas, who is being overlooked by the broader betting public.

Matt Jerzyk stated that Justin Thomas is exhibiting exceptional ball-striking form ahead of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Jerzyk observed Thomas in person at TGL and noted that he 'straps it harder than anyone,' indicating that he is flushing the ball better than anyone else. Based on these observations, Jerzyk is considering placing a single bullet bet on Thomas at 28-1 odds, believing he could be a strong contender this week.

Nick Borrman recommended betting on Justin Thomas to win the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational due to his exceptional approach play and renewed focus. Thomas is consistently gaining over eight strokes on approach and is 'striping it' better than anyone in the field. Borrman also highlighted that Thomas is working with a new caddie, Matt Minister, Patrick Cantlay's former caddie, who is helping him simplify his game. With favorable odds at 28:1 and a return to Florida—effectively a home game for Thomas—Borrman believes this is a strong value bet.

Nick Borrman highlighted that Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay are available at favorable odds of 28 and 30 to 1 for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Despite being popular picks within certain betting communities, their odds are drifting, which Borrman finds concerning but sees as an opportunity. He notes that these are very fair prices compared to their usual odds, suggesting that betting on Thomas and Cantlay could offer good value this week.

Brian Kirschner advocated betting on Justin Thomas at 25-1 odds for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, citing his exceptional iron play and improved recent form. Kirschner pointed out that Thomas is hitting his irons really well and finished 12th at this event last year despite being in worse form. He has gained strokes in all major categories and had a low-key ninth-place finish at Torrey Pines recently. Kirschner believes Thomas is a much better player now and has had success in Florida before, making him a strong pick at attractive odds.

Kyle disclosed that he is betting on Justin Thomas at 25-1 odds for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He emphasized that Thomas is playing unbelievably well, particularly with his iron play, which is 'hot' right now. Despite not having won in a long time, Kyle noted that Thomas finished 12th at this event last year, gaining strokes in all major categories, and finished 9th at Torrey Pines with strong iron play. Kyle believes that Thomas is in better form now and has had success in Florida before, making him a strong candidate to win at favorable odds.

Brady Kannon said Justin Thomas is being overlooked at the Arnold Palmer Invitational despite his recent form and strong statistical profile. Thomas finished sixth at TPC Scottsdale among three top-10s this season and ranks third in Strokes Gained: Approach and seventh on par 4s measuring 450-500 yards over his last 36 rounds. He also carries solid course history at Bay Hill with progressively better finishes (49th, 21st, 12th). Kannon noted Thomas’s length off the tee and elite scrambling ability as key factors in his potential to contend.

Alex Hunter identified Justin Thomas as a prime DFS target for Bay Hill. Thomas finished T12th here last year and has looked sensational in 2025, notching three top-10 finishes in five starts. He led the field in strokes gained approach at the Genesis Invitational, marking two straight events with at least five strokes gained on approach. Thomas ranks fifth in SG: Approach overall this season, fitting a course where top iron play has been crucial to success.

Will Gray said he's taking Justin Thomas at +2800. He pointed to Thomas’ clear momentum, noting steady improvement over the last two years at Bay Hill. Gray expects this progress to continue and believes Thomas’ recent form makes him a strong bet this week.

Casey Johnston expects Justin Thomas (+500) to finish in the top five. He pointed to Thomas’ three top-10s in his last four starts and his strong standing in Strokes Gained: Total, making him a prime candidate for a high finish this week.

Derek Farnsworth recommended an outright bet on Justin Thomas at +2800. Farnsworth noted Thomas’ comfort playing in Florida due to his ties to Jupiter, collegiate career at Alabama, and Kentucky upbringing. He highlighted Thomas’ best finish at this event (T12 in 2024) and emphasized that Thomas currently ranks 12th in driving distance. Farnsworth also praised Thomas’ elite iron play and short-game prowess, citing his proven track record in strong fields, including wins at THE PLAYERS and two PGA Championships.

Kenny Kim recommended betting on Justin Thomas to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational at 18:1 odds. He noted that Thomas's form coming into the event is solid and that he has shown improvement at Bay Hill, finishing 12th last year in only his second appearance. Kim believes Thomas is a strong contender in the 18 to 22 to 1 odds range, offering value compared to the top favorites.

Riley Hamel pointed out that Justin Thomas has been winless on the PGA TOUR since his 2022 PGA Championship victory but has shown strong recent form. Thomas finished runner-up at The American Express and earned top-10 finishes at both the WM Phoenix Open (T-6) and Genesis Invitational (T-9). Hamel emphasized that Thomas has made the cut in all three of his API starts and improved each time (T-49 in 2015, T-21 in 2023, T-12 in 2024), suggesting an upward trajectory that could culminate in a win.

Mike McClure identified Justin Thomas as a 28-1 sleeper for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational, citing Thomas’s back-to-back top-10 finishes (including a T-9 at The Genesis Invitational) and his strong strokes gained metrics. Thomas ranks seventh overall in strokes gained this season, second in Par 4 scoring and putting average, and fourth in scoring average (68.5). McClure’s model projects Thomas’s hot start to continue at Bay Hill.

Matt Vincenzi recommended betting on Justin Thomas at +2500, citing his returned approach advantage after he led the field at the Genesis Invitational with +9.36 strokes-gained on approach—his best since the 2021 WGC Workday Championship. Thomas has also placed T21 and T12 in his past two starts at Bay Hill, gaining strokes both off the tee and on approach in each. Vincenzi noted Thomas ranks 11th in total strokes gained in Florida and believes his renewed iron play positions him to end a 656-day winless drought.

Matt Vincenzi said Justin Thomas is a top betting option at +2500 because of his elite iron play. Thomas led the Genesis Invitational field in strokes gained on approach, totaling +9.36, his best performance since 2021. He has also finished T21 in 2023 and T12 in 2024 at Bay Hill while gaining strokes off the tee and on approach each time. Over his past 24 rounds, Thomas leads the field in strokes-gained approach, ranks second in ball striking, and sits 11th in both par-5 scoring average and total strokes gained in Florida. Vincenzi believes these factors make him likely to break his 656-day winless drought.

Jason Rouslin highlighted Justin Thomas as a strong play at $9,400, citing his elite ball striking and iron play returning to top form. Thomas has been driving the ball better, and his irons are back to being elite, similar to when he was number one on tour before Scottie Scheffler emerged. Despite his traditionally below-average putting, Rouslin believes that on this course with expected tough conditions, Thomas's ball striking will give him an advantage, and his putting won't hurt him as much. He recommends pairing Thomas with Rory McIlroy as top picks in lineup construction.

Jason Rouslin advised choosing Justin Thomas over Patrick Cantlay, noting that Thomas is closer to winning and offers more upside. Although Cantlay has been consistent with top-ten finishes, his stats don't indicate a winning edge, and he hasn't won in several years. Rouslin believes Thomas's recent improvements in ball striking and iron play make him a stronger candidate for DFS and betting purposes, stating he would prefer building lineups with Thomas and Rory McIlroy rather than involving Cantlay.

Keith Stewart advised against betting on Justin Thomas for the Arnold Palmer Invitational due to his inaccuracy off the tee. Stewart noted that while Thomas is a prolific birdie maker, he struggles to keep the ball in the fairway on demanding courses like Bay Hill. This leads to too many bogeys that offset his birdies, making it difficult for him to contend. Stewart emphasized the importance of consistency and hitting fairways at this venue, suggesting that Thomas's aggressive style may not yield success here.

Steve Bamford advised backing Justin Thomas each way at 18/1, highlighting his strong form in 2025. Thomas ranks 4th in Scoring Average, 8th in Birdie Average, and 8th in Bogey Avoidance across his recent starts. Bamford noted an uptick in Thomas's iron play and driving (4th in total driving at TPC Scottsdale) and emphasized that six of his 15 career PGA Tour wins have come on Bermudagrass greens. Thomas finished 12th at Bay Hill in 2024 and has excelled at Florida venues, including third- and first-place finishes at PGA National and TPC Sawgrass, which Bamford sees as an ideal preview of his potential this week.

Jason Rouslin advised drafting Justin Thomas early in the PGA Best Ball Scramble, despite his ADP of 20. Rouslin believes Thomas is undervalued and can score over 160 points in the Sentry Tournament of Champions, offering a significant early-round advantage.