Matt Jerzyk identified Patrick Cantlay as a strong contender for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He emphasized that the course favors long hitters who can also hit fairways—termed 'positional bomber plus'—which suits Cantlay's game. Cantlay has gained over four strokes on approach in his last two starts, showcasing a spike in his ball-striking performance. Jerzyk observed that Cantlay looks confident and upbeat, playing some of his best golf recently. He also mentioned that Cantlay cares about winning this event, one of the big tournaments that players prioritize. Jerzyk believes Cantlay can deliver another strong approach week and contend for the title.

Matt Jerzyk expressed concerns that increased rain at Bay Hill will negatively impact Scottie Scheffler's performance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He believes that the softer conditions caused by rain are not favorable for Scheffler's game. Jerzyk suggested that the more it rains, the worse it will be for Scheffler, implying that the current course conditions are not setting up the way Scheffler would prefer.

Matt Jerzyk identified Justin Thomas as a strong contender for the Arnold Palmer Invitational due to his exceptional recent performance with his approach shots. Jerzyk noted that Thomas has been consistently gaining over eight strokes on approach, a rare feat that indicates he is in peak form. He emphasized that the course at Bay Hill requires distance and spike approach play, and Thomas is excelling in both categories. Thomas looks confident and is 'striping' the ball. Additionally, Jerzyk observed that Thomas was so focused during practice that he chose to play alone, indicating his serious preparation for the tournament. Jerzyk is considering placing a 'single bullet' bet on Thomas at 25-28 to 1 odds.

Matt Jerzyk cautioned against betting on Xander Schauffele at 16 to 1 odds for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, citing several concerning observations. Jerzyk noted that Schauffele appears to have gained weight since last year and does not look as fit. During his solo practice round, which is unusual for him, Schauffele missed shots he typically doesn't miss, suggesting he is not in his prime form. This is his first tournament in a long time, and while he may have one great round, Jerzyk doesn't believe Schauffele is ready to contend for a win yet. He recommends avoiding betting on Schauffele until he shows more consistent form.

Matt Jerzyk identified Justin Thomas as a strong contender for the Arnold Palmer Invitational due to his exceptional recent performance with his approach shots. Jerzyk noted that Thomas is 'on fire' and displaying 'prime JT approach', looking confident and 'striping' the ball. He also mentioned that Thomas is focusing during practice rounds, even choosing to practice alone to concentrate better. Additionally, with his odds at 28 to 1, Jerzyk believes this is a fair number and is considering placing a 'single bullet' bet on Thomas due to his current form and favorable odds.

Matt Jerzyk suggested that Corey Conners is a good value bet at 90 to 1 odds for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Jerzyk acknowledged that while Conners had a slow start to the season, he appears to be returning to form. He highlighted Conners' exceptional ball-striking abilities, comparing him to Scottie Scheffler's tee-to-green performance last year. Despite his putting struggles, Jerzyk believes Conners could easily secure a top-10 finish and that there are worse bets to make at his current odds.

Matt Jerzyk expressed concerns about Viktor Hovland's readiness for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, noting that Hovland appears to be focusing less on playing and more on experimenting with his game. Jerzyk mentioned that Hovland has been difficult to spot on the course recently and seems to be conducting a 'science experiment' with his practice routines, possibly working on his short game and putting. He also noted that Hovland is putting a new putter in the bag but has yet to see him out on the golf course, raising doubts about his current form and preparedness for the tournament.

Matt Jerzyk highlighted Patrick Cantlay as a strong contender for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at favorable odds of 28-1. Jerzyk expressed surprise that Cantlay's odds were drifting despite being popular among sharps and ranked number one in his own power rankings. He believes Cantlay offers great value given his form and feels the general betting public is overlooking him, making now an excellent opportunity to bet on Cantlay.

Matt Jerzyk identified Justin Thomas as a strong contender for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, emphasizing that his odds at 30-1 offer excellent value. Jerzyk was surprised that Thomas's odds were not shorter despite his high ranking among sharps and his strong recent form. He suggests that the lack of odds movement presents a valuable betting opportunity on Thomas, who is being overlooked by the broader betting public.

Matt Jerzyk identified Andrew Novak as a strong sleeper pick for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He observed Novak playing with Collin Morikawa, noting that Novak was outdriving the two-time major champion and appeared very confident. Jerzyk mentioned that Novak is solid across all aspects of his game and believes he could have a breakout performance similar to Kurt Kitayama before his recent win. Additionally, Novak is priced affordably at $6,300 on DraftKings with only 3% projected ownership, representing a potentially valuable DFS play.

Matt Jerzyk advised against betting on Shane Lowry at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, stating that Lowry is tired and has "no chance" this week. Jerzyk placed Lowry in the "no chance" category due to fatigue and suggested that bettors should avoid him in both betting markets and DFS lineups, as his performance may be negatively impacted.

Matt Jerzyk stated that Justin Thomas is exhibiting exceptional ball-striking form ahead of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Jerzyk observed Thomas in person at TGL and noted that he 'straps it harder than anyone,' indicating that he is flushing the ball better than anyone else. Based on these observations, Jerzyk is considering placing a single bullet bet on Thomas at 28-1 odds, believing he could be a strong contender this week.

Matt Jerzyk expressed concerns that Max Homa is on the verge of losing his PGA Tour card due to his current poor performance. Despite having exemptions from previous wins, Homa is not likely to be in the top 100 to retain his card. Jerzyk noted that Homa is 'playing horrible golf right now' and may have a better chance of winning in Korn Ferry Tour events like the Astara Chile Classic.

Matt Jerzyk observed that Max Homa looked better today and may be poised for a bounce-back performance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Homa has a good course history at the API, having 'striped here historically,' and is known for his excellent long iron play. Jerzyk plans to watch Homa again tomorrow, noting that he saw 'good things' from Homa in the latest practice rounds.

Matt Jerzyk recommended betting on Michael Thorbjornsen at 40-1 odds in the Puerto Rico Open. Jerzyk described Thorbjornsen as a "generational birdie maker" and a legitimate golfer who can excel at this event. He mentioned that he frequently bets on Thorbjornsen and believes he's a strong play this week due to his ability to make a high number of birdies, which is critical in a tournament like Puerto Rico where low scores are common.

Matt Jerzyk expressed skepticism about Nicolai Hojgaard being the favorite at the Puerto Rico Open. He found it surprising and "crazy" that Hojgaard, who isn't even typically a favorite on the DP World Tour, is positioned as the top pick in this PGA event. Jerzyk implies that betting on Hojgaard at favorite odds may not offer good value, considering his relative inexperience and the strength of other contenders in the field.

Matt Jerzyk recommended betting on Antoine Rozner at 45-1 odds in the Puerto Rico Open. He noted that Rozner could easily be a favorite in a DP World Tour event, highlighting his strong credentials and potential to outperform his odds. Jerzyk believes Rozner fits the profile of a strong contender who is undervalued in the betting market, making him a smart wager for those looking for solid returns.

Matt Jerzyk identified Hayden Springer as a strong pick for the Puerto Rico Open, referring to him as a 'generational flusher.' Jerzyk mentioned that he ran his model and plans to include Springer on his betting card, suggesting confidence in Springer's ball-striking abilities for this event.