Brady Kannon recommended Sam Stevens for the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta, referencing Stevens’s strong correlation with Torrey Pines form. Stevens finished runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open four weeks ago, placed 31st in his last event, and took 13th at Torrey Pines in 2023. Kannon noted that top Torrey Pines performers like Jon Rahm and Tony Finau have also excelled at this Mexico venue. Stevens currently ranks 13th in strokes gained tee-to-green over his last 24 rounds, and fourth in strokes gained off the tee, making him a popular but justifiable pick.

Greg identified Patrick Rodgers as a strong bet at 22 to 1, noting Rodgers’s course history of 10th, 10th, and 6th in three appearances at Vidanta Vallarta. Rodgers also finished third last week, his best result on Tour since 2015. Greg referenced Rodgers’s success at Torrey Pines and believes he is a solid option for a top-20 wager with upside to win, despite being thrust into a role with higher expectations than usual.

Brady Kannon advised avoiding Akshay Bhatia at short odds, explaining that Bhatia is unfamiliar with the pressure of being a favorite. Kannon cited a pattern in which younger, less established players often struggle when unexpectedly placed atop the odds board. While acknowledging Bhatia’s skill and success at longer odds, Kannon cautioned that the burden of increased expectations makes him a riskier bet at this event.

Greg tabbed Stephan Jaeger at 25 to 1 for the Mexico Open, emphasizing his consistent performance at Vidanta Vallarta. Jaeger placed third here last year and has logged top-20 finishes in all three of his appearances. He also has two top-fives in his last six events, including a runner-up at the Desert Classic, and has shown well on similarly correlated courses like the Farmers Insurance Open and Sanderson Farms Championship.

Greg singled out Beau Hossler as another promising pick at Vidanta Vallarta, noting his strong showings at Torrey Pines and Sanderson Farms—venues that correlate well with the Mexico Open. Hossler’s length off the tee and comfort on wide fairways align with a course setup that penalizes inaccuracy less. Though he has not posted a top-10 finish since his runner-up at Sanderson Farms, Greg believes Hossler’s skill set could thrive in this birdie-friendly environment.

Brady Kannon said Beau Hossler should be a contender at the Mexico Open despite not having a top-10 finish in his last eight starts. Kannon pointed to Hossler’s runner-up showing at the Sanderson Farms Championship, which he views as a correlated course, along with Hosler’s sixth- and ninth-place results at Torrey Pines. Kannon considers Hosler to be one of the more talented players in this field and believes those prior strong finishes indicate a good fit for this event.

Brady Kannon explained that although Michael Kim is coming off strong finishes—including 13th last week and second at Phoenix—Kim’s odds have shortened to 25-to-1, which Kannon considers too expensive. He also noted Kim’s inconsistent history at this venue, suggesting that the price no longer provides sufficient value. While Kannon praised Kim’s improved world ranking and sand play, he ultimately decided to pass on him at the current odds.

Brady Kannon recommended Kevin Yu for the Mexico Open, highlighting his sixth-place finish at Torrey Pines and two straight top-20 results leading into this week. Kannon also cited Yu’s impressive stats, including 21st in strokes gained off the tee, 15th in birdies or better, and 38th in driving distance, along with a previous win at the Sanderson Farms Championship—another course Kannon views as correlated to this event. All of these factors make Yu a strong value play in Kannon’s eyes.

Brady Kannon identified Alex Smalley as a sneaky contender at the Mexico Open. Smalley has made three appearances here, finishing sixth on his debut, though missing the cut in the other two. Kannon pointed to Smalley’s recent form—21st at Phoenix and only one missed cut at Torrey Pines this year—and highlighted statistical strengths such as scrambling, off-the-tee play, and long-iron approaches from 175 yards or more. With a hot putter, Smalley could find himself in contention on Sunday.

Brady Kannon backed Nicolai Hojgaard at 40-to-1 odds, noting that his talent level surpasses many in the field. Although Hojgaard’s past year on the PGA Tour has included growing pains, he displayed significant promise at Torrey Pines with a runner-up finish. Kannon also pointed out Hojgaard’s strong performances on the DP World Tour and believes the young Dane could provide hefty value in a weaker Mexico Open field.

Brady Kannon explained that CT Pan has excelled at courses similar to Vidanta Vallarta, noting Pan’s third-place finish here last year and consistently strong results at Mayakoba, Torrey Pines, and Sanderson Farms. Statistically, Pan ranks well in strokes gained approach, scrambling, and proximity on longer approaches—a focal point this week. Kannon was able to bet him at around 60-to-1 and believes Pan’s skillset complements the layout and conditions in Mexico.

Brady Kannon acknowledged Carson Young as a value bet near the bottom of his card. Though Kannon didn’t delve into deep stats on Young this time, he pointed out that Young has shown an ability to post solid finishes on courses featuring paspalum greens, including strong results in other Mexican events. Kannon believes Young’s track record in similar setups, combined with his attractive triple-digit odds, makes him worth a speculative wager.

Brady Kannon highlighted Lanto Griffin as another player with strong upside in a weaker Mexico Open field. Griffin has made the cut in all three appearances here, including a top-20 result, and also finished ninth at Torrey Pines—another course Kannon views as correlated. Though Griffin’s form has been up and down, Kannon sees him as a worthwhile gamble at odds ranging from 65-to-1 to over 100-to-1, stressing the importance of line shopping for the best price.

Brady Kannon said Lanto Griffin is an excellent play at the Mexico Open based on Griffin’s history at similarly demanding courses. Griffin briefly lost momentum after missing the cut at Phoenix, but he has made every cut at this event—including a top-20 finish. Kannon noted Griffin’s strong showings at Torrey Pines and other correlated venues as evidence that he is poised for another solid result in a weaker field.

Greg said Vincent Norrman is rounding back into form after winning the Barbasol and Irish Open in 2023. He plummeted in the rankings following six straight missed cuts to end 2024, but he has now made four consecutive cuts to start the year. Greg believes that Norrman’s ball striking, power off the tee, and past success in international fields make him a high-upside betting play at 90 to 1.

Greg said Luke List is a perfect fit for the Mexico Open, citing his strong track record on driving-heavy courses. List owns wins at Sanderson Farms and the Farmers (Torrey Pines), both of which Greg sees as highly correlated to this week’s layout. Although List often struggles with the putter, Greg noted that when the ball-striking clicks, List can contend in weaker fields thanks to his length off the tee.

Greg said Hayden Springer’s success at correlated courses makes him a worthwhile gamble at triple-digit odds. Springer has top finishes at Sanderson Farms, the Puerto Rico Open, and Torrey Pines, showing he thrives on layouts similar to Vidanta Vallarta. Greg noted that Springer’s strong strokes gained off the tee and approach stats, plus his recent sixth-place finish at Torrey Pines, point to legitimate upside for a top-20 or better this week.

Greg said Matteo Manassero is an intriguing long-shot bet, pointing out that he has faced tougher fields in the past and still has top-tier talent despite not being a bomber. Manassero leads the tour in fairway accuracy this season and ranks highly in approach shots from 175–200 yards. Greg believes these strengths, paired with solid recent form (seven straight made cuts), give Manassero a solid chance to surprise at over 100 to 1.

Greg said Joel Dahmen is a strong pick this week due to his solid tee-to-green performance and success at similar tracks (including top-10 finishes at Torrey Pines). Dahmen’s average drive of 295 yards isn’t elite, but his accuracy and high rankings in strokes gained tee-to-green over his last 24 rounds give him a realistic chance to contend. Greg noted Dahmen’s recent top-10 at Torrey as proof that Dahmen’s game is trending positively.

Greg said Emiliano Grillo, though not in peak form, has posted good results at this course and other correlating venues. Despite some missed cuts, Grillo’s scoring has not been disastrous, and he has a top-5 finish here. Greg expects that a return to a comfortable layout could jump-start Grillo’s performance, as he’s among the more talented players in this watered-down field and has historically excelled at Sanderson Farms and Quail Hollow as well.

Brady Kannon advised against betting on Patton Kizzire this week. He explained that Kizzire’s recent victory makes it tough for a lower-tier golfer to duplicate that success so soon, especially since his current form shows only one top-30 finish in his last nine appearances and five missed cuts. Kizzire also lacks the driving distance needed to benefit on longer layouts, making it unlikely he’ll contend at the Mexico Open given his recent struggles and course demands.