David Barnett recommended a 45-to-1 wager on Alex Smalley, citing his strong start to 2025 and top-5 standing in Barnett’s model. Barnett praised Smalley’s balanced combination of enough distance off the tee, excellent mid-to-long iron play, and solid short-game skills that should serve him well on the longer par fours and par fives. With his improving form and ability to handle passable lies off the tee, Barnett sees Smalley as an appealing mid-range pick in a wide-open field.

David Barnett advocated for Alex Smalley at the Mexico Open, highlighting Smalley’s strong short game and long iron play. Barnett noted that Stephan Jaeger gained nine strokes around the green in 12 rounds at this course, and suggested Smalley can capitalize in a similar way. Smalley’s ability to handle tricky lies near the green, combined with his solid approach play, could be a difference-maker in this tournament.

Brady Kannon identified Alex Smalley as a sneaky contender at the Mexico Open. Smalley has made three appearances here, finishing sixth on his debut, though missing the cut in the other two. Kannon pointed to Smalley’s recent form—21st at Phoenix and only one missed cut at Torrey Pines this year—and highlighted statistical strengths such as scrambling, off-the-tee play, and long-iron approaches from 175 yards or more. With a hot putter, Smalley could find himself in contention on Sunday.

Pat Mayo mentioned Alex Smalley coming off a really nice week at the Sony Open that no one noticed, and notes that he has finished in the top 25 each of the past three years at this tournament.