Tom Jacobs advised backing Patrick Cantlay at Bay Hill, noting that Cantlay has gone nearly three years without a PGA Tour victory and is eager to break this drought before major season begins. Jacobs pointed out Cantlay’s strong start to 2025 (including two top-5 finishes in four starts, with a worst finish of T33) and highlighted that Cantlay ranked 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach in his last two tournaments. Cantlay finished 4th on debut at Bay Hill in 2022—inside the top-5 for three of four rounds—and Jacobs believes his top-5 at Torrey Pines this season indicates he can thrive again in Florida. With further success at events like the Valspar Championship, Jacobs sees Bay Hill as the perfect spot for Cantlay to end his winless run.

Tom Jacobs recommended Michael Kim as an appealing outside bet, highlighting Kim’s recent form, which includes a runner-up finish at the Phoenix Open, back-to-back 13th-place results at Torrey Pines and Mexico, and a 6th-place finish at the Cognizant Classic—where Kim entered the final round just one stroke off the lead. Jacobs noted that Kim’s Strokes Gained: Approach numbers have been consistently strong over the past month, placing him 27th or better Tee-to-Green in recent events. With an eight-stroke PGA Tour win already on his résumé, Kim is aiming to break into the top 50 by season’s first major and has prior success at Bay Hill, finishing 17th in 2017. Jacobs sees all signs pointing to another strong performance at appealing odds.

Tom Jacobs labeled Brian Harman a long-shot pick this week, emphasizing that despite Harman’s final finishes not reflecting stellar results, his ball striking metrics suggest he’s on the verge of a breakout. Harman ranked 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 9th Tee-to-Green last week, which Jacobs calls a season high. Although Harman’s Arnold Palmer Invitational results have been volatile, he finished 12th in last year’s elevated-field edition and has previously recorded 13th, 15th, and 17th at Bay Hill. Harman was also co-leader at the halfway point in 2024 here. Jacobs believes if Harman can put together four consistent rounds, he has the potential to surprise at valuable odds.