Ryan Noonan said he is backing Rory McIlroy to win the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational, emphasizing McIlroy’s strong track record at Bay Hill and the positive impact of his recent swing change on iron play. McIlroy has posted top-four finishes in six of his last eight worldwide starts and relies on near-peerless distance plus above-average accuracy off the tee. Noonan also cited McIlroy’s long-standing success on fast bermudagrass greens, where he has gained 0.46 strokes per round over 40 career rounds at Bay Hill. Believing McIlroy’s ball-striking ceiling is the highest in the field, Noonan views his outright odds as better value than those for tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler.

Ryan Noonan said he is also backing Ludvig Aberg to secure another Signature Event victory at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Noonan highlighted Aberg’s elite long-iron play and impressive driving distance, both of which position him well on Bay Hill’s challenging layout that features forced layups and frequent long approaches. He noted Aberg’s success on fast bermudagrass greens—where he leads the field in strokes gained putting over at least eight rounds at Bay Hill—and his ability to navigate firm conditions with a higher apex off the tee. Noonan believes Aberg’s composure under pressure, plus the guidance of his experienced caddie, makes him a strong outright candidate at 17/1.

Ryan Noonan said he’s backing Russell Henley due to his elite ball-striking and strong track record at PGA National. Henley has recorded eight top-10 finishes in 18 starts since last season’s Cognizant Classic, and Noonan emphasized that Henley’s comfort on Bermudagrass greens and in the southeast region amplifies his upside. Noonan believes Henley’s tee-to-green consistency and his proven success in big events make him a strong outright bet this week.

Ryan Noonan highlighted Luke Clanton’s upside as the top-ranked amateur in the world and a Florida State Junior who needs just one more point to secure his PGA Tour card. He praised Clanton’s plus-distance off the tee, solid accuracy, and impressive approach play from 125-200 yards, strengths that could translate well at PGA National’s demanding layout. Noonan noted Clanton’s four wins in his last 10 starts at FSU as evidence of his high ceiling, especially in front of a hometown gallery in Hialeah, Florida.

Ryan Noonan added Lucas Glover to his outright card, pointing to Glover’s course fit at this club-down track. He emphasized that Glover’s accuracy off the tee, combined with his mid-iron strengths, gives him a genuine shot at winning. Noonan noted Glover’s T3 finish at Pebble Beach this season and back-to-back top-five finishes during the swing season. With multiple strong showings at PGA National already, Glover’s consistency and ability to avoid costly mistakes could keep him in contention through the weekend.

Ryan Noonan called Adam Svensson an intriguing play at 120/1, highlighting his T9 finish in 2022 and his consistent ball-striking at PGA National’s corollary courses. Noonan noted that despite a missed cut last year, Svensson’s solid play off the tee and strong approach game suit the layout, especially with more club-down opportunities. Living in the Palm Beach area has seemingly helped Svensson master Bermuda greens, making him a solid high-upside bet in a volatile field.