Alex Hardin observed that replacing Bijan Robinson with Alvin Kamara in his lineup increased his SIM ROI from negative 6% to 78%, suggesting Kamara is a better play.
Hunter Henry:Hunter Henry: Better play over Will Disley despite intuitions
Alex Hardin noted that playing Hunter Henry over Will Disley significantly increased his SIM ROI, even though pairing Disley with his quarterback Justin Herbert seemed logical.
Jaguars Defense: Play over higher-projecting Jets Defense
Alex Hardin discovered that playing the Jaguars defense, despite being worse projecting and lower owned, significantly increased his SIM ROI compared to the Jets defense, emphasizing the value of lower ownership in lineup construction.
Puka Nacua:Puka Nacua: Swapping from Kamara didn't pay off
Alex Hardin swapped Alvin Kamara for Puka Nakua after the 1 PM games, hoping for an ownership discount. However, Kamara ended up being lower owned and the swap cost him a point or two, though not enough to lose the qualifier. f
Chase Brown:Chase Brown: Including in lineup decreased SIM ROI
Alex Hardin noted that lineups including Chase Brown, along with Zach Ertz and Jets defense, had a lower SIM ROI of 38% compared to other versions, suggesting that including Brown decreased expected value.
Alex Hardin advised avoiding Josh Palmer in lineups due to uncertainty in his role, suggesting that Palmer's role is often in flux and ultimately choosing to steer clear of him in his lineup.
Justin Herbert:Prefer single-stacking Herbert with one pass-catcher
Alex Hardin suggested that single-stacking Justin Herbert with one pass-catcher is preferable to double-stacking. He found that forcing two pass-catchers lowered the simulated ROI, and preferred single-stacks due to Herbert's mobility and uncertainty in production from other receivers.
Alex Hardin advised against playing heavily-owned Bengals players like Chase Brown. He wanted to pivot to lower-owned options like Brian Robinson Jr. to differentiate his lineup and avoid the mass chalk.
Hunter Henry:Hunter Henry: Strong tight end option this week
Alex Hardin highlighted Hunter Henry as a strong tight end option for the slate. He considered Henry a priority play to potentially differentiate his lineup from others using cheap tight ends.
Hunter Henry:Hunter Henry: Preferred over Will Dissly with Justin Herbert
Alex Hardin found that including Hunter Henry instead of Will Dissly when playing Justin Herbert at quarterback significantly increased his Sim ROI, advising that Henry is the better tight end option in this lineup configuration.
Justin Herbert:Justin Herbert: Preferred over Anthony Richardson at QB
Alex Hardin advised focusing on Justin Herbert at quarterback over Anthony Richardson. He aimed to avoid the Colts' spot, expecting Richardson to be the default cash option at QB, and preferred Herbert for his lineup construction.
Alex Hardin recommended playing Brian Robinson Jr. over Chase Brown. He noted that Robinson is an interesting pivot off Bengals chalk, being $100 cheaper and projected at only 6% ownership compared to the mass chalk on Chase Brown.
New York Jets:Jets Defense: Lower Sim ROI when heavily owned
Alex Hardin noted that including the Jets defense in lineups led to a Sim ROI of 38%, suggesting that heavily owned defenses may not provide the best value.
